Fayne
Evard's Tentacles of Forced Intrusion
- Joined
- Feb 13, 2015
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Re: (Nutaku) Milenium War Aigis (English Version)
Actually death corps is not "more likely to screw you over". You can't just look for the lowest chance. It's in th calculations, so it doesn't really matter
Possible scenarios for Death Corps:
6 items: 49 % (0.7*0.7)
11 items: 42 % (0.7*0.3*2)
16 items: 9 % (0.3*0.3)
With an average of 9 you have a chance of 51 % to be above average per run.
While on Reunion everything evens out to 50 % chance to be above or below average. (math is rather simple, thus I'm too lazy to write it down. Ask again if you have questions)
With this information we know, that in both cases it is equally likely to be above or below average (for imprisoned soul it's 90 % chance to be below average per run btw). Therefore the only interesting information, to chose which of the maps is the better one to run, is the average and the spread (min and max values/ best and worst case scenarios)
Thus:
If you trust your "luck" to be average: Go for reunion.
If you want your worst scenario case be less bad, but still have a good chance for a low average and min value: Go for Death Corps
If you want the least bad worst case scenario but have a high average: Go for imprisoned soul
Heavy artillery is only good for the secondary drops. The advice above doesn't take this into account though, so you might change your preferred map on secondary drops
(BTW: I replaced Erratic with imprisoned soul in the spreadsheet since it's outcome is far better)
Actually death corps is not "more likely to screw you over". You can't just look for the lowest chance. It's in th calculations, so it doesn't really matter
Possible scenarios for Death Corps:
6 items: 49 % (0.7*0.7)
11 items: 42 % (0.7*0.3*2)
16 items: 9 % (0.3*0.3)
With an average of 9 you have a chance of 51 % to be above average per run.
While on Reunion everything evens out to 50 % chance to be above or below average. (math is rather simple, thus I'm too lazy to write it down. Ask again if you have questions)
With this information we know, that in both cases it is equally likely to be above or below average (for imprisoned soul it's 90 % chance to be below average per run btw). Therefore the only interesting information, to chose which of the maps is the better one to run, is the average and the spread (min and max values/ best and worst case scenarios)
Thus:
If you trust your "luck" to be average: Go for reunion.
If you want your worst scenario case be less bad, but still have a good chance for a low average and min value: Go for Death Corps
If you want the least bad worst case scenario but have a high average: Go for imprisoned soul
Heavy artillery is only good for the secondary drops. The advice above doesn't take this into account though, so you might change your preferred map on secondary drops
(BTW: I replaced Erratic with imprisoned soul in the spreadsheet since it's outcome is far better)
