Fayne
Evard's Tentacles of Forced Intrusion
- Joined
- Feb 13, 2015
- Messages
- 642
- Reputation score
- 25
Re: (Nutaku) Milenium War Aigis (English Version)
Just for fun I simulated a group of 1 mio aigis players running Reunion. At first I thought about confidence intervals, but I can't really remember how they are done and was too lazy to reasearch. That's why I thought: Why not let the computer do the work. The results are rather surprising (complete data in the spoiler). To sum it up in a group of 1 mio players between 91 and 126 runs where necessary to reach 1500 items. This is equal to 16-31 SC spent (at my rank, 18 Sta, 427 Cha). So spending 80 on Reunion is very, very, very, very unlikely^^
That was me, although it wasn't as much about having bad luck as making sure that I can max out (aka get 1500 souls, since I don't give a damn about the extra 10 levels) the event unit. With a realistic, but below average luck Army of Dead X could cost around ~40 SC. I have around 10, so that'd be 30 SCs, give or take a few. So I can clear the event with $30 at worst. If I stick to Reunion G and get a realistic, but still below average droprate, than it could cost me ~80 SC (= $60) which is just out of my budget, therefore I wouldn't get a maxed out unit. I know that I won't get the absolute worst scenario. I have a higher chance of hitting the jackpot on the lottery than only getting the 100% drops. However, getting somewhat lower droprates than the average is perfectly possible and could screw me over on Reunion G.
Just for fun I simulated a group of 1 mio aigis players running Reunion. At first I thought about confidence intervals, but I can't really remember how they are done and was too lazy to reasearch. That's why I thought: Why not let the computer do the work. The results are rather surprising (complete data in the spoiler). To sum it up in a group of 1 mio players between 91 and 126 runs where necessary to reach 1500 items. This is equal to 16-31 SC spent (at my rank, 18 Sta, 427 Cha). So spending 80 on Reunion is very, very, very, very unlikely^^
91: 0.0001 %.
92: 0.0001 %.
93: 0.0016 %.
94: 0.0069 %.
95: 0.0204 %.
96: 0.0349 %.
97: 0.1254 %.
98: 0.3012 %.
99: 0.7031 %.
100: 1.3729 %.
101: 1.5314 %.
102: 3.4708 %.
103: 5.3044 %.
104: 7.343 %.
105: 9.3807 %.
106: 7.1153 %.
107: 11.3736 %.
108: 11.4226 %.
109: 10.5892 %.
110: 9.0185 %.
111: 4.9411 %.
112: 5.8635 %.
113: 4.0897 %.
114: 2.6143 %.
115: 1.5858 %.
116: 0.6477 %.
117: 0.5916 %.
118: 0.3032 %.
119: 0.1427 %.
120: 0.06 %.
121: 0.0193 %.
122: 0.0165 %.
123: 0.0055 %.
124: 0.0022 %.
125: 0.0007 %.
126: 0.0001 %.
Average amount of runs: 107.7
Minimum SC cost: 16
Average SC cost: 23
Maximum SC cost: 31
92: 0.0001 %.
93: 0.0016 %.
94: 0.0069 %.
95: 0.0204 %.
96: 0.0349 %.
97: 0.1254 %.
98: 0.3012 %.
99: 0.7031 %.
100: 1.3729 %.
101: 1.5314 %.
102: 3.4708 %.
103: 5.3044 %.
104: 7.343 %.
105: 9.3807 %.
106: 7.1153 %.
107: 11.3736 %.
108: 11.4226 %.
109: 10.5892 %.
110: 9.0185 %.
111: 4.9411 %.
112: 5.8635 %.
113: 4.0897 %.
114: 2.6143 %.
115: 1.5858 %.
116: 0.6477 %.
117: 0.5916 %.
118: 0.3032 %.
119: 0.1427 %.
120: 0.06 %.
121: 0.0193 %.
122: 0.0165 %.
123: 0.0055 %.
124: 0.0022 %.
125: 0.0007 %.
126: 0.0001 %.
Average amount of runs: 107.7
Minimum SC cost: 16
Average SC cost: 23
Maximum SC cost: 31