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DarkFire1004

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While I won't lock the topic yet because there WILL be more changes in organization in the coming months, and there will definitely be more discussion to be had later, I advise all parties to keep it above the belt. I don't consider anything anybody said here so far to be outright instigating the other party, but it's clear that it's heading towards that direction.
 

Ninja_Named_Bob

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I try to step back and avoid a fight, and they keep dragging me back in...

@YummyTiger, @HentaiWriter, @habisain, @Jesus, consider the following:

You're the vocal minority currently. You've voiced your concerns, legitimate or not. What the issue with your approach is, is that you were so quick to express those concerns rather than give the change a proper amount of time. You jumped the gun, issued demands, and then added how it affects you and other patreon devs, supposedly. Okay, let's go ask those devs, then. Namedrop someone with an @ before their name and see what they say. I mean, assuming they haven't seen the shitshow that is this thread (they likely have) and decided to let you throw yourselves onto your own swords.

Basically, the side that would normally support you, from what I've noticed, has decided you're too noisy and annoying, and too belligerent to support. Maybe take that into consideration before you respond.

Now, about the change...

I've seen your concerns. I've seen your arguments. I've dismissed them as baseless and a quartet of old men shouting at clouds. You're positing that it might cause threads to be isolated and hidden. The counter has been that anything in "In Development" isn't being hidden. There is no conspiracy to undermine your projects. The change was made because users felt there needed to be an adjustment to what should go where, rather than a clump of content with varying degrees of completion sitting in one place. It was a change unanimously supported by a mass consensus, and currently opposed by an insignificant minority.

Another issue you've brought up is this is somehow a condemnation of patreon games by the forum staff because some users don't like the crowdfunding model in and of itself. I can confirm from the last thread we had on improving this section that it is, in fact, not a conspiracy to hurt crowdfunding games. In fact, go look at my last post in there. I suggested a rules change that specifically targeted crowdfunded games that saw little or no development. It was unanimously opposed and rejected on the spot. That so many people felt that was too far should be an indicator that you're essentially bitching about a non-existent group or some bogus conspiracy.

You've pushed a narrative of "us vs them", the "them" being a non-vocal, possibly non-existing group heavily opposed to crowdfunding. If they do exist, they're sure as Hell not as obnoxious as you guys have been. Yeah, people will jump in a thread for a crowdfunded game and take issue with a lack of progress or the model itself. They'll cite situations that fits their narrative, sort of like what you guys are doing right now. I've already said that the change addresses these people and de-legitimizes their behavior further. One would think if you took a moment to think about it for even a microsecond, you'd realize the benefit.

Now, is the change infallible? No. There are definitely improvements on it that can be made. Trying to de-legitimize it because we're no longer forced to wade through pages of incomplete/dead/hiatus projects to hit that one game that is complete is ridiculous. A tagging system that addresses genre's, engines, its developmental stage, and if it's crowdfunded or not would work. It would help to alleviate concerns over exposure and further de-legitimize your so-called "hate group" into oblivion. What it wouldn't do is "isolate and hide" your threads.

The forums aren't going to crash because Darkfire and co decided to make it easier to navigate. I think it's the height of arrogance and ignorance to say "I care about the forums" and then issue arguments that are wholly self-serving, as you have. It's also disingenuous for you to constantly attack people who oppose your position and accuse them of having an anti-crowdfunding mindset.

Also, @HentaiWriter, I've supported crowdfunding games. I even OP'd a thread for one. Meanwhile, you've sat on here and the discord, bitching and shitposting constantly. I would compare you to EA in terms of scummy behavior, but I don't want to unnecessarily bash them. I mean, at least when they bullshit, they have something to offer.
 

Jesus

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While I won't lock the topic
Rather than locking the thread and in doing so suppressing this discussion, could you not hand out tempbans (And if necessary, delete offending posts so as to avoid diluting the actual discussion) instead?


outright instigating the other party
While I don't disagree:

Completely untrue, and because it is untrue all the other arguments fall away.
This is bait. I could retort by copy-pasting that same line in response and ignore the rest of the post; Dismissing an essay's worth of argumentation and opinion as objectively wrong so as to avoid having to address any other points, at which point you're well on your way down the slip-slide into shit-slinging.
While the saying goes you shouldn't attribute to malice that which can easily be attributed to ignorance, the possibility remains that this was done with the intent of provoking a negative response. Which it still has by the fact I'm now arguing about arguing instead of the discussion's topic its self.

As this quote relates to the point you were responding to:
Close your eyes, forget this discussion for a moment and think of your favorite scenario from your favorite full-release game.
Now imagine the same scene, but as part of a crowdfunded beta.
Now imagine the same scene, but it's from the demo hosted on the game's DLSite page
Is whether a game's content appeals to you dependent on how it's funded?

Rhetorical question, but feel free to answer "Yes" and undermine your credibility.
If not, then in what way does having both crowdfunded and non-crowdfunded games split across two different sections makes it easier to find games that conform to your both your standards and tastes?

Crowdfunded projects give up-front cash for incomplete projects. Which attracts much more scammers and unserious authors.
Exaggerated but true; I agree that crowdfunded projects are inherently more exploitable because in paying towards them, you don't receive a complete product in return. However, crowdfunding is a means to the completion of a project, not an exchange of money for goods; any content offered as a reward is just that. You are not buying the game its self, you are donating to the people making it, for which many give you access to in-dev versions of that project in return. People's lack of understanding in this fact is a large part of what enables such exploitation. Again, the platforms could do better in protecting people against their own ignorance.
I'd be happy if threads linking to the game's crowdfunding campaigns were required to contain a disclaimer explaining the above.

Sure, there are incomplete non-patreon projects... but the ratio isn't 0.01% worthwhile to 99.99% proof of concept like it is for patreon.
More hyperbole. "Worthwhile" is subjective. Go back to that scenario and imagine; You come across someone developing a game that's all about it. Are you going to ignore it because the developer's asking for money to help support them while they make it, or even better, hire some people so it's made to a higher standard, potentially finished quicker and/or with more content? I think I can answer that for you; no, you sit from afar checking its progress every now and then just like any other game in development, without spending a dollar yourself.


Granted - Crowdfunded games are much more difficult to sort through in terms of 1: What appeals to you, 2: Which of them are progressing at a steady rate and/or have progressed beyond a playable state. This is because there's no index of crowdfunded adult games.
I also abhor the few devs that have come here, posted a blurb about their "game" and a link to their Patreon - neither of which has even screenshots - then disappear. THOSE threads should be deleted as they come up, with a grace period for the dev to post some kind of proof they've got something to show for it.

Finally, there are incentives for bad forum behavior: [...] Crap crowdfunded games get bumped by their authors because they want funding or at best, to promote their game. So crowdfunded games break the forum model that sweeps crap to the bottom.
Moderation. In terms of how it affects the forum, a crowdfunded developer posting in their game's thread with an update of some kind is no different from someone going to a non-crowdfunded game-in-dev's thread and relaying an approximated translation of the dev's latest blog post.

This is the part that you can't explain away by simply saying there are "good" crowdfunding sites that don't charge per month. Since fresh payers are even more necessary to the non-monthlies, then that's even more incentive for authors (or their friends) to keep bumping the topic. I certainly don't expect a mod to be able to tell between a buddy bumping a game and an actual fan bumping it.
The few CF threads I follow have only been bumped by the dev posting actual news about their games or the state of its development. Sometimes followed shortly by the odd question, suggestion or "Thumbs up good job sounds great" and it slides down until the next one. Can you point to any examples of behavior falling outside of that? Or do you see behavior that fits this pattern as problematic?
Worst case, the people offended by it can use the ignore function with those threads.

Failing moving CF'd games back where they belong, then the Under Construction subforum should not be exclusive to in-progress CF'd games, and any unfinished games should be moved to it.

Refer back to my post with the mock-up.
Games that are fully released and at most receiving bugfix patches and the odd expansion down the line get one subsection. Games that have playable demos but the full version is unreleased or still in development get another. Games in progress with no playable content publicly available go in "Under Construction". This would include crowdfunded games that do have playable builds, but none that can be accessed without supporting/pledging.

That's still not ideal to me though. Once again, I favor enforced thread tags based on release status (And for content as well, but that's secondary to this discussion). The section remains undivided, but users can choose to only see completed games.
 

habisain

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Hey, don't lump me in with the people arguing against the change. I'm more or less neutral. I certainly don't like the current version, but I wasn't too much of a fan of the old version either. I'd also point out that I don't think that either a majority of people in this thread are in favor of the current system (it seems about 50-50 or so), and also that this is not a democracy. The mods are in charge, and Darkfire has already stated that the status quo is not going to be the final state.

I've dismissed them as baseless and a quartet of old men shouting at clouds. You're positing that it might cause threads to be isolated and hidden
However, @Ninja_Named_Bob, you are the one of the people fostering the us vs them attitude. You've now stated your opinion is that you can dismiss the concerns of anyone directly impacted as baseless simply because they disagree with you. That is, in a nutshell, the very essence of the post-truth attitude. For reference, there are publicly viewable thread view counts. The data so far suggests that there is a negative impact on traffic, although it's too early to draw definitive conclusions (and my data is incomplete with regards to past traffic, obviously. If a mod wants to give me historical data I can do some proper analysis - right now I've got some good estimates which I would be amazed if they're wrong, as well as comparing aggregate stats on threads in both sections, but it is conceivably possible that there's something weird in the data which I haven't seen). The concerns of the people who rely on traffic from ULMF to (ultimately) fund adult games are grounded in reality.
 
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Jesus

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I @Jesus, consider the following:

[...] You jumped the gun, issued demands, and then added how it affects you and other patreon devs, supposedly. [...]You're positing that it might cause threads to be isolated and hidden. The counter has been that anything in "In Development" isn't being hidden.
I am not developing a game and do not run any form of crowdfunding campaign; nor am I associated with anyone who is or does.
My only horses in this race are, in order of importance, as follows:
1: You now have to check 2 subsections to find newly-posted games as some threads are created before the game's release, some after.
2: The UC section is only accessible by first entering the "Hentai Games" subforum - it's not visible from the front page. The main body of threads are in the subforum rather than their own sub-section. This complicates navigation, further exacerbating #1
3: The UC section is, as of last time I checked, only populated with crowdfunded games; unfinished games still populate the H-games subforum. I understand this may be temporary.
4: A moderator has to identify those games which are complete either by their own initiative or someone else doing so and requesting it to be moved.
5: "Under construction" makes no distinction between games with publicly accessible playable content and those that do not.

[...] users felt there needed to be an adjustment to what should go where, rather than a clump of content with varying degrees of completion sitting in one place[...]
I agree, but there is a third option I'd prefer.

Another issue you've brought up is this is somehow a condemnation of patreon games by the forum staff because some users don't like the crowdfunding model in and of itself. I can confirm from the last thread we had on improving this section that it is, in fact, not a conspiracy to hurt crowdfunding games. In fact, go look at my last post in there. I suggested a rules change that specifically targeted crowdfunded games that saw little or no development. It was unanimously opposed and rejected on the spot. That so many people felt that was too far should be an indicator that you're essentially bitching about a non-existent group or some bogus conspiracy.
For me, it's more that some participants in this thread seem to be so vocal because they dislike crowdfunding in principle.

Yeah, people will jump in a thread for a crowdfunded game and take issue with a lack of progress or the model itself. They'll cite situations that fits their narrative, sort of like what you guys are doing right now. I've already said that the change addresses these people and de-legitimizes their behavior further. One would think if you took a moment to think about it for even a microsecond, you'd realize the benefit.
As I've explained, in my opinion this is something of a gray area. I do realise the benefit - I also don't see that benefit as a good tradeoff against issue #1, especially when it wouldn't stop such people from exhibiting that behavior regardless. However, others - particularly people who have contributed to a campaign - may have legitimate concerns they wish to discuss in those threads. While rare, such discussions are equally prone to devolve into shit-slinging which is where moderation trumps segregation, which in this respect is a mechanical "solution" to a people problem.


[...] A tagging system that addresses genre's, engines, its developmental stage, and if it's crowdfunded or not would work. It would help to alleviate concerns over exposure and further de-legitimize your so-called "hate group" into oblivion. What it wouldn't do is "isolate and hide" your threads.[...]
Pending your reasoning as to how and why they wouldn't work (Other than the obvious effort to create/maintain the infrastructure), tags and filters are the ideal browsing experience in any catalog. Server browsers, online market-places, music libraries, etc
 
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YummyTiger

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@NinjaNamedBob - I will post this in the simplest terms possible. Why does funding matter? If the forum is called "Under Construction" Why are not ALL games not released put in there, regardless of funding? If I decide that my game is complete after chapter 1, can I move it to the main forums? It is literally no longer "under construction" at that point?
 

Ninja_Named_Bob

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I am not developing a game and do not run any form of crowdfunding campaign; My only horses in this race are, in order of importance, as follows:
1: That regardless of whether #3 is temporary - you now have to check 2 subsections to find newly-posted games as some threads are created before the game's release, some after.
2: The UC section is only accessible by first entering the "Hentai Games" subforum - it's not visible from the front page. The main body of threads are in the subforum rather than their own sub-section. This complicates navigation.
3: The UC section is, as of last time I checked, only populated with crowdfunded games.
1) That could be adjusted. As it stands, I've seen few who oppose the change. HW was kind enough to post a screencap of the discord where it was discussed for a few moments before being put aside as a "let's see what happens" situation. Personally, "In Development" deserves its own place on the first subsection to increase exposure. Unfortunately, that's a can of worms I'm not capable of opening without spillage.

2) I disagree on it complicating navigation. I found it easy enough on my first couple of forays. Granted, I was familiar with the forums to begin with, so navigation isn't a foreign concept to me as it would be to a newer user. That said, we're not exactly so popular that people are climbing over each other to register on a daily basis. I think, more than anything, the navigation issue is reconcilable with some refinement if you're so inclined.

3) That would be the majority of what is promoted here on the western side of things, yes. There are some Japanese games that get shared here and are in development, yes, but not as many being promoted as the western market. Over-saturation is a concern nobody seems to want to acknowledge.

For me, it's more that some participants in this thread seem to be so vocal because they dislike crowdfunding in principle.
I'm gonna counter this point. While there are some who will go out of their way to shitpost the problems with crowdfunding, I haven't seen them in this thread. There are those with practical, even reasonable concerns about the concept as a whole, and we've discussed to death the issues it presents. Part of the reorganization was to acknowledge those concerns and figure out a means to alleviate them somewhat. I'll reiterate, I've posited a few suggestions to punish some of the less-savvy "projects" and have faced rejection on the principles of fairness and equality. I would hardly rush, then, to accuse darkfire or anyone else of trying to undermine those principles with this change.

Crowdfunding is a hot-button topic in general that generally evokes strong emotions from both sides. When someone posts non-sequiturs like "it's not going away" or "those are exceptions, not the rules" or "AAA games get cancelled all the time", it only hurts discussion. You're basically dismissing any opposition because it opposes the narrative you're trying to push.

As I've explained, in my opinion this is something of a gray area. I do realise the benefit, yes, but ultimately it doesn't stop such people from exhibiting that behavior nonetheless. However, others - particularly people who have contributed to a campaign - may have legitimate concerns they wish to discuss in those threads.
Similarly, too many campaigns that don't deserve funding receive it from people who probably have too much money to know what to do with it. It's a grey area that has no easy answer, and the more we discuss it, the closer we get to a satisfying resolution. Unfortunately, seldom do both sides care about the outcome and more about shit-slinging. I'll admit to my part on that.



Pending your reasoning as to how and why they wouldn't work (Other than the obvious effort to create/maintain the infrastructure), tags and filters are the ideal browsing experience in any catalog.
Obvious issues aside, it doesn't alleviate the issue of sifting through content that's incomplete vs content that is. Granted, people can use their own discretion at that point, but I digress. A combined tagging/sorting system would be optimized and work to alleviate concerns over devs or non-users dropping a bare-bones alpha or no-content crowdfunding page and then vanishing. Part of the hate crowdfunding gets is those people alone.



However, @Ninja_Named_Bob, you are the one of the people fostering the us vs them attitude. You've now stated your opinion is that you can dismiss the concerns of anyone directly impacted as baseless simply because they disagree with you.[/quote]

I've dismissed them because I don't find them worthwhile. Whether they disagree or not, I'm fine with it. Hell, I encourage it. This thread came about as what I view a purely emotional perspective rather than giving the change a proper trial run.

That is, in a nutshell, the very essence of the post-truth attitude. For reference, there are publicly viewable thread view counts. The data so far suggests that there is a negative impact on traffic, although it's too early to draw definitive conclusions (and my data is incomplete with regards to past traffic, obviously.
A couple contradictions, there. First, you imply I'm opposed to truth. The opposite is the truth, actually. I'm open to it; but, I also look gift horse in the mouth. I know from experience not to assume something is because someone says so. It's the height of arrogance to suggest I'm wrong and opposed to fact-finding when my position has been, from the very start, let time tell its tale.

So, the second contradiction is on your relevant point. You say you've noticed a drop in thread traffic, yet it's too early to tell. Either, the change is negatively-impacting threads and developers and thus a detriment, or drawing conclusions at this point is failing to permit this thing run its course so data can be collected more accurately.

If a mod wants to give me historical data I can do some proper analysis - right now I've got some good estimates which I would be amazed if they're wrong, as well as comparing aggregate stats on threads in both sections, but it is conceivably possible that there's something weird in the data which I haven't seen). The concerns of the people who rely on traffic from ULMF to (ultimately) fund adult games are grounded in reality.
Arguable, at best. You have to first substantiate that there is a correlation between historical data and current data, then present an irrefutable position that concludes the concerns are indeed legitimate. However, historical data is either irretrievable, or blended with current data. Let's assume 10 people viewed a patreon thread before the change. A sudden drop to 5 views could be attributed to the change.


Or, it's related to relevance of the thread to user interest.

As I've said, people aren't being pushed to currently sift through hundreds of threads if they don't want to. People who don't want to touch patreon content, aren't having to see it mixed with non-patreon content. Similarly, people who want crowdfunding content can find it, albeit with some extra navigation. As you've said, it's too early to draw conclusions either way. That's been my position.

@HentaiWriter: And it's been closed.

@YummyTiger: Funding is irrelevant. It's also too early for you to establish a narrative on what is being put there and isn't. Hasn't Darkfire issued a deadline for the sorting? Why not wait until that date to state your objections? And if you personally say "this is all I'm doing with this game", then yeah, I suppose it counts as completed and can be put in the appropriate area. Nobody has asserted otherwise.
 

Obscure

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The current scheme of shoving the Patreon games into their own subforum has made it a lot easier to find elusive material. Material I had thought lost to the sands of time.

Cramming everything into the main forum makes it easier to lose stuff and makes ULMF an inferior porn surfing tool as well as an inferior marketing tool.
 

habisain

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A couple contradictions, there. First, you imply I'm opposed to truth. The opposite is the truth, actually. I'm open to it; but, I also look gift horse in the mouth. I know from experience not to assume something is because someone says so. It's the height of arrogance to suggest I'm wrong and opposed to fact-finding when my position has been, from the very start, let time tell its tale.

So, the second contradiction is on your relevant point. You say you've noticed a drop in thread traffic, yet it's too early to tell. Either, the change is negatively-impacting threads and developers and thus a detriment, or drawing conclusions at this point is failing to permit this thing run its course so data can be collected more accurately.

Arguable, at best. You have to first substantiate that there is a correlation between historical data and current data, then present an irrefutable position that concludes the concerns are indeed legitimate. However, historical data is either irretrievable, or blended with current data. Let's assume 10 people viewed a patreon thread before the change. A sudden drop to 5 views could be attributed to the change.
At the very best, you've demonstrated a tenuous grasp of how statistics works. There are two testable hypotheses, and one untestable without historical data. The untestable one is that traffic on ULMF is somehow different to every other forum on the Internet. I can't rule this out, but it does seem unlikely, and the fact that there is a contingent of people complaining about Patreon threads in the main section does suggest they had visibility there at least equivalent to other threads. The testable hypotheses are on currently observed data, and are that a) if there is a drop in thread traffic relative to the main forum and b) the quantity of the drop in thread traffic relative to the main forums. The data suggests, with pretty high confidence (about the probability of flipping a coin 4 times and getting all heads) that there is indeed a drop in traffic in all the sub-forums that were created relative to the main forum. However, the confidence on this measure isn't yet high enough to accept it as truth, it could be a fluke, although it is unlikely. I'll need a couple more days of observations to say for certain. The second hypothesis is the magnitude of the drop in traffic, and my margin for error on this is quite high so I'll wait until I have more data.

If you're for getting to the bottom of this, then please refrain from posting anything else regarding the statistics on the matter. You do not appear to grasp basic statistical concepts, and given your assertion that you cannot differentiate between Historical and Current data when every single data point has a time-stamp on it, I do not think you are in a position to make arguments on the data. Faking your own knowledge is another characteristic of a post-truth attitude.

For that matter, I've realised that I can in fact get the historical data, or at least a subset of it. I might try to do that, although first I'm going to PM Darkfire and ask him if doing statistical analysis on post times is permitted on this forum. I'm actually not sure.
 
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HentaiWriter

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The current scheme of shoving the Patreon games into their own subforum has made it a lot easier to find elusive material. Material I had thought lost to the sands of time.
Cramming everything into the main forum makes it easier to lose stuff and makes ULMF an inferior porn surfing tool as well as an inferior marketing tool.
Had to reply to this, because this is a really good point; the only problem with it is that the Games Under Construction forum is still a sub-forum and thus much less likely to get noticed, but I figure in a few weeks we can see what the viewcount/reply count is on threads there vs when they were in the main forum. Would be good if Darkfire could post some example topic's viewcounts on average before the change and after the change a month later or something like that.

If it had its own forum and had equal exposure to the Hentai Games thing, I'd say that'd be too unfair/unequal, but if it was entirely incomplete games and then the forums were both front page but split into "Complete Hentai Games" and "Incomplete Hentai Games" or "Hentai Games in Progress" that'd be the most fair outcome for all parties.
 

Obscure

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Had to reply to this, because this is a really good point; the only problem with it is that the Games Under Construction forum is still a sub-forum and thus much less likely to get noticed, but I figure in a few weeks we can see what the viewcount/reply count is on threads there vs when they were in the main forum. Would be good if Darkfire could post some example topic's viewcounts on average before the change and after the change a month later or something like that.

If it had its own forum and had equal exposure to the Hentai Games thing, I'd say that'd be too unfair/unequal, but if it was entirely incomplete games and then the forums were both front page but split into "Complete Hentai Games" and "Incomplete Hentai Games" or "Hentai Games in Progress" that'd be the most fair outcome for all parties.
Even as a sub forum it's content is largely middling or better English. That content also doesn't require applying a translation patch. These two factors alone should drive browsers in that direction.
 

Ninja_Named_Bob

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At the very best, you've demonstrated a tenuous grasp of how statistics works.
There is a statistical probability you're right as much as there is one you're wrong. It's subjective at this point, given we're the only relevant parties. It's also highly improbable that conclusive data can correlate a certainty on either probability, given that the two opposing views are equal to each other. Therefore, your assumption is a hypothesis to which the data cannot validate. It's a flimsy theory if we're going by statistics. It cannot be debated, since neither side can come to an agreement based on the data presented which side is more correct.

There are two testable hypotheses, and one untestable without historical data.
Incorrect. I'm establishing a counter-hypothesis that states not only is your presumption of only three options existing preposterous, but wholly inaccurate with respect to the data presented. Please provide further data so we can arrive at the proper conclusion.

The untestable one is that traffic on ULMF is somehow different to every other forum on the Internet. I can't rule this out, but it does seem unlikely, and the fact that there is a contingent of people complaining about Patreon threads in the main section does suggest they had visibility there at least equivalent to other threads.
Facetious at best for 3 reasons:

1) This is an adult forum. The audience is niche at best.

2) The forum doesn't directly deal with one form of media, ergo its broader appeal means a broader grouping of users.

3) It's one of many inconsequential parts of the internet with its own rules, community, etc. I've seen communities both better and worse, so your claim is inaccurate.

Your point about traffic to certain threads is also facetious. We don't have an existing spreadsheet or flowchart that presents data prior to the change, and substantial data to suggest any variety of traffic has occurred. You said there was a noticeable difference, but that it's too early to draw conclusions. Yet, here you are, drawing them.

The testable hypotheses are on currently observed data, and are that a) if there is a drop in thread traffic relative to the main forum and b) the quantity of the drop in thread traffic relative to the main forums. The data suggests, with pretty high confidence (about the probability of flipping a coin 4 times and getting all heads) that there is indeed a drop in traffic in all the sub-forums that were created relative to the main forum. However, the confidence on this measure isn't yet high enough to accept it as truth, it could be a fluke, although it is unlikely.
Again, you contradict yourself. You say that it is observable (and it is, to a degree), and then posit a probability with no certain outcome. It's possible to flip a coin 20 times and never have it land on heads, inasmuch as it's possible to get the same result all the time. That doesn't mean the coin is in some way responsible for the outcome. It's random happenstance that it landed that way. Attributing statistical probability to something uncontrollable is unscientific, don't you think?

Similarly, you're trying to establish that because of the change (presupposition), traffic to certain threads (correlation) has dropped (conclusion). You've also stated that the change is too new and we don't have the benefit of historical data. You can't rely on statistical data if your own position contradicts itself. It's a self-disproving hypothesis at that point by omission of relevant evidence to suppose anything but.

I'll need a couple more days of observations to say for certain. The second hypothesis is the magnitude of the drop in traffic, and my margin for error on this is quite high so I'll wait until I have more data.
I'm gonna get personal a moment and say just from experience of your own contradictions that you're probably not the body to measure this accurately. Not to say I won't accept the results if your accuracy is on-point, but I would also want that historical data to verify what you come up with further. If Darkfire or someone is willing to provide it, then we can debate the topic further. My issue is, as you've said, the limited timetable we're working from currently doesn't lend itself to accurately reporting the difference between now and then with respect to traffic. It's wholly reliant on presumption that there is a difference, and that the change is to blame rather than additional factors which the old system would have lent itself to.

If you're for getting to the bottom of this, then please refrain from posting anything else regarding the statistics on the matter. You do not appear to grasp basic statistical concepts, and given your assertion that you cannot differentiate between Historical and Current data when every single data point has a time-stamp on it, I do not think you are in a position to make arguments on the data. Faking your own knowledge is another characteristic of the post-truth era.
Presupposition based on personal bias. If you're for legitimate debate, you'll permit my view regardless of whether I have a tenuous grasp or not. You presently aren't, which is why I'll reject your "evidence" on principle. You also falsely attribute qualities to my person to fit your narrative, a common behavior of persons who do not want to debate, but instead prefer dissenting views are squashed and denied a fair platform. "Post-truth" is your schtick, sir, and I'll not have any of it. You are permitted to meet me on equal terms, or do the reasonable thing and forfeit your position.

I welcome either.

For that matter, I've realised that I can in fact get the historical data, or at least a subset of it. I might try to do that, although first I'm going to PM Darkfire and ask him if doing statistical analysis on post times is permitted on this forum. I'm actually not sure.
Your data then needs to give the new system a proper period of 2-3 weeks rather than a few days. A single week is highly inaccurate to determine the overall reception to something. Hell, a AAA developer would laugh you out of the room for trying to pass off week 1 as a completely accurate representation of consumer interest. Your grasp on how statistics are measured is appalling.
 

Jesus

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The current scheme of shoving the Patreon games into their own subforum has made it a lot easier to find elusive material. Material I had thought lost to the sands of time.

Cramming everything into the main forum makes it easier to lose stuff and makes ULMF an inferior porn surfing tool as well as an inferior marketing tool.
Mandatory tag(s) and a filter system would make it even easier to find such content, both known to you and new to you.

I will correct my self in fact - my biggest problem with the reorganisation as it's going currently is that any solution that involves splitting up the HG subforum will still result in users having to visit the subforum(s), check through each new thread (Perhaps check the next page for new threads they've missed), decide if they're interested and choose to ignore/watch, and move on to the next - or neglect to do so and sift through it all over again the next time they want to find threads they do care to see. That's still a huge step up from when the forum software was changed, and the mess the HG subforum has been. It can go much further - but of course, I say this from the perspective of someone who wouldn't have to do (or source/commission) the work.
As we speak, I am using the raw power of MSPaint to construct the greatest mock-up you will have ever seen.


Even as a sub forum it's content is largely middling or better English. That content also doesn't require applying a translation patch. These two factors alone should drive browsers in that direction.
Titties without borders
 

Ninja_Named_Bob

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Mandatory tag(s) and a filter system would make it even easier to find such content, both known to you and new to you.
A filtering system requires the average person to give enough damns to use it. The simplest choice (and the one that was accepted in the reorganization thread) was to separate content by its relative completion. I'm fine with tags and think it's an addition Darkfire should consider, even apply on top of the change. It's also a combined option I noticed HW conveniently forgot to add to their poll. Hm...

my biggest problem with the reorganisation as it's going currently is that any solution that involves splitting up the HG subforum will still result in users having to visit the subforum(s), check through each new thread (Perhaps check the next page for new threads they've missed), decide if they're interested and choose to ignore/watch, and move on to the next - or neglect to do so and sift through it all over again the next time they want to find threads they do care to see.
Isn't that the argument in favor of the change? I can see where your issue is, that being it segregates content and forces users to do some extra work to find that which is relevant to them. I think do think it's more legwork than the average person wants to do, though not as much as "everything in the same pile" and "sort through it with tags". As I've said, a combination segregation/tagging system is highly preferable. People who don't want to look or use the search function are SoL on principle, then.

That's still a huge step up from when the forum software was changed, and the mess the HG subforum has been. It can go much further - but of course, I say this from the perspective of someone who wouldn't have to do (or source/commission) the work.
It's easy to address something without being the body in charge of making it happen. I applaud your humility in admitting your perspective. Also, a moment of silence for tentacle-chan, whom was an unfortunate victim of the software change and will no longer honor our front page with her presence.

The HG subforum was a mess. We can agree on that, right? Tagging was an idea. It's not a fix, but a start.

As we speak, I am using the raw power of MSPaint to construct the greatest mock-up you will have ever seen.
and we're golden.
 

habisain

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@Ninja_Name_Bob It is clear that there is nothing that anyone can say to you that will convince you that you are not 100% right about everything, so I'm not sure this post will accomplish anything at all. However, you have demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt that you do not understand basic statistical concepts like confidence. Statistics never proves something absolutely, and confidence is the way that this is expressed. Further, my assumption on ULMF behaving as a normal Internet forum is very unlikely to be false, regardless of how niche ULMF is. Clearly, you have no idea how generalised statistical models work.Suffice to say, unless the audience of ULMF is primarily bots or other non-human actors, the generalised models should hold, because ULMF has a sufficiently large active membership for the models to be valid.

So to be clear: if you understand statistics, then I have not contradicted myself a single time. I apologise if the way I explained things was confusing; I do understand that statistics can be for people who are not familiar with it. People like clear cut and exact answers, and statistics tends not to give them, unfortunately.

Now, given the frequency of visitors to ULMF (which is trivially observable), then if the change is going to end up as being neutral within the timeframe that Darkfire has suggested (at most, a couple of months before the next phase of reorganisation), we should have seen more of a correction on the visitor numbers to the sub-forums than we have done by now. This suggests with high confidence that there is going to be a permanent reduction in the number of visitors to the sub-forums going forward. There is approximately a 1 in 16 chance of this statement being wrong with the current data, so it's not absolute, but it is highly likely.

But obviously, you're going to rant about how this is just hypothesis and speculation. But please, your last previous post on this was embarrassing for me, as someone trained in statistics, to read. At least refrain from pretending that you know statistics.

EDIT: I now have permission to do some proper stats (using historical data), so I'll go away and do some proper stats once I've got the tools to extract the data. I won't comment further on this until I have some actual answers, because given the current discussion, I don't think there's anything left to say until I have some harder evidence.
 
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HentaiWriter

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A filtering system requires the average person to give enough damns to use it. The simplest choice (and the one that was accepted in the reorganization thread) was to separate content by its relative completion. I'm fine with tags and think it's an addition Darkfire should consider, even apply on top of the change. It's also a combined option I noticed HW conveniently forgot to add to their poll. Hm...
Meanwhile, hours ago...





C'mon man. I know you have a serious bone to pick with me given that you mention me in almost every post of yours in this thread, but try to actually use facts in your posts instead of passive aggressive attacks on people that have no basis in reality, okay? :)
 

Ninja_Named_Bob

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@Ninja_Name_Bob It is clear that there is nothing that anyone can say to you that will convince you that you are not 100% right about everything. You have demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt that you do not understand basic statistical concepts like confidence. Statistics never proves something absolutely, and confidence is the way that this is expressed. Further, my assumption on ULMF behaving as a normal Internet forum is very unlikely to be false, regardless of how niche ULMF is. Clearly, you have no idea how generalised statistical models work.Suffice to say, unless the audience of ULMF is primarily bots or other non-human actors, the generalised models should hold, because ULMF has a sufficiently large active membership for the models to be valid.
When you stop presuming and attacking, you find that debates can be fruitful. In this case, you're so caught up in trying to discredit someone that you're disregarding their platform completely. This is why your position is neither reliable or valid. You don't want debate. You want people to agree on the basis that you say you know better without actually knowing better. As soon as I suggested your position contradicted itself, you want on the offensive with attacking me rather than my position. Now, you can cite kettles and pots all you want, but it doesn't actually help your case. It hurts it, that you're so content to lower yourself rather than rising above and establishing your position better.

So to be clear: if you understand statistics, then I have not contradicted myself a single time. I apologise if the way I explained things was confusing; I do understand that statistics can be for people who are not familiar with it. People like clear cut and exact answers, and statistics tends not to give them, unfortunately.
There you go, once more presupposing you know better rather than admitting that your hypothesis is highly flawed. And, btw, statistics are generally simple and easy to understand so the average person can understand them. You've failed on recognizing that basic fact. So far, you're so far removed from reality it's painful to watch.

Now, given the frequency of visitors to ULMF (which is trivially observable), then if the change is going to end up as being neutral within the timeframe that Darkfire has suggested (at most, a couple of months before the next phase of reorganisation), we should have seen more of a correction on the visitor numbers to the sub-forums than we have done by now. This suggests with high confidence that there is going to be a permanent reduction in the number of visitors to the sub-forums going forward. There is approximately a 1 in 16 chance of this statement being wrong with the current data, so it's not absolute, but it is highly likely.
You actually can't observe the traffic ULMF sees on average. Here's an experiment: count hourly the amount of users that are online. Do that for a week, and then come back with an estimate based on the observable data. Couple that with unregistered visitors (you can't measure that accurately, don't even try to bullshit this) and then ask the staff to provide a record of the timeline. I'll wager your data is completely off-target. Hell, I'll eat a ban if I'm wrong. I'm that confident you're that full of shit.

We wouldn't see a correction after a few days. That's completely retarded, to try and gauge something so extreme so early. You can't even properly measure for a margin of error in rough estimations in such a short timeframe. At best, you can speculate on the basis of historical data (you've established that it doesn't exist) and user reception. That's it. You can't hypothesize with any degree of accuracy, or establish a correlation. It's all supposition on your part based on what you know, with limited information.

Also, your statistical probability is shit. It's an arrogant denial that you could be wrong. I would wager you're closer to 1 in 3, and that's generous.

But obviously, you're going to rant about how this is just hypothesis and speculation. But please, your last post was embarrassing for me, as someone trained in statistics, to read. At least refrain from pretending that you know statistics.
Because it is. What's your evidence to suggest the contrary? Besides your own baseless suppositions that haven't actually established anything except an obvious bias? Also, gonna need you to cite your credentials and btw, argument from authority is a fallacy. Based on what you've posited here, you're either shit at your job, or lying. So, great job ousting yourself as an incompetent failure or a bad liar.
 

DarkFire1004

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Last warning to all. Keep it civil.
 

habisain

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@Ninja_Named_Bob Nope, that's not how stats work. Doing stats properly is not easy - it's why people pay statisticians for their work. Stats doesn't give exact answers, but it has the tools required to express exactly what the uncertainty is. Clearly, I have failed in communication here, and so I apologise for that. However, please look up terms like statistical confidence before engaging in further discussion. The only reason why I say that you do not appear to know what these terms and concepts mean is because you genuinely do not appear to know what they mean. If I was being too forceful on that, again, I apologise.

Once I've got a decent enough dataset together, I'll put that out there along with the analysis. This isn't a high priority for me, but it's also not too difficult for me to do either - most of the time it takes will be writing up the conclusions so they are easy to understand - or at least easier than what I've said already. But until then I'm just gonna go ahead and ignore this thread. I'm not here to be insulted.

EDIT: Ninja'd by Darkfire. Well, everything I said still stands.
 
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